Blog 10
Describe one logical natural cause that would explain the exponential rise in global temperatures between 1850 and 1998, as seen in the Hockey Stick Graph.
Please provide one concrete source, including a citation, that you used to justify your response
There are many natural explanations for rising global temperatures. The various occurrences that affect the average annual temperatures range from solar flares to volcano eruptions. However, the impact of these natural incidents is eclipsed by that of human activity. In the past 150 years, Earth's average temperature has been increasing at an exponential rate. While some of this could be due to various volcano eruptions, the overall trend is in line with that of human industrialism. In other words, most of the natural causes of climate change are negligible when in combination with human causes.
ReplyDeleteSource: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page4.php
Logical and natural causes that would explain the exponential rise in global temperatures between 1850 and 1998 would be volcanic activity and solar output. These two factors are the primary influences on the amount of incoming energy. Volcanic eruptions are not constant and have a relatively short-term effect but over time, their effects can build up. However, human causes are much more relevant than natural causes when it comes to climate change. Since the Industrial Revolution, additions of greenhouse gases have had over 50 times the effect as the suns output. Without industrialization, it is very likely that there would not have been as steep of an increase in global temperatures.
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One logical natural cause that could explain the exponential rise in temperature seen in the Hockey stick graph is the amount of sun's energy that reaches Earth. The sun can intensify how much radiation it gives off and how much heat it sends to Earth. This is explained by the EPA, "The intensity of the sunlight can cause either warming (during periods of stronger solar intensity) or cooling (during periods of weaker solar intensity)". Another way the sun can affect Earth's temperatures is by the Earth's orbit. Changes in the tilt of the Earth and the shape of its orbit can determine how much solar energy Earth receives. This can increase global temperatures and could explain the hockey stick graph.
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The temperature on Earth is rising due to natural causes as well as human interaction. The exponential increase in temperature can be partially put on the "greenhouse effect." This is caused by in increase of gases, like CO2, in our atmosphere. The gas levels are rising because they are getting trapped in our atmosphere and they are retaining heat, therefore causing the glaciers to melt as well. It should still be known that humans expedite the process of climate change but there are natural causes at work also.
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One natural reason that temperature has increased since 1850 is because of the fluctuation in weather patterns, such as drought and famine. Tracking El Nino and El Nina has been able to help us follow the overall temperature of the Earth compared to the temperature in just one area. Although most of the global warming can be pointed directly at humans during the industrial revolution, if we look hard enough we can see that natural causes such as drought and solar flares can effect the global temperatures. The Hockey stick graph can be explained by these ideas because of the low temperatures in times of drought. We have not had this issue in a while and the graph has been subtly making its way up the chart. Another idea to note is that temperature was not accurately measured until the 1850s and because of this we can only track how much it has increased from this point on, we can not see how much it increased before the 1850s.
ReplyDeletehttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/decadaltemp.php
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/cliihis100.html
There are plenty of natural causes that contribute to global warming. One of them is the Milankovitch Thoery. This thoery says that Earth goes through temperature changes due to the orbit and tilt of the planet. The closer Earth is to the sun, the temperature increaes and vice versa.Another natural cause is volcanic eruptions. Each eruption puts carbon dioxide and other green-house gases into the atmosphere. Green-house gases react with each other and heat up the Earth. These natural occurrences can help explain the Hockey stick graph.
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Michael Mann is the creator of the Hockey Stick Graph. Mann supports his graph against his critics with many different arguments. However, the information concerning the changes that have changed El Nino which has lead to change the environment and its temperatures is one of the most important. The changes in activities such as volcanic eruptions and solar changes have changed El Nino into an event more similar to La Nina, which has in the long run leads to a higher amount of greenhouse-gas in the world. El Nino typically makes the ocean waters warmer in the Pacific, however El Nino has changed and has begun to make these waters cooler instead. Understanding this is essential to realizing in order to prevent the rise of temperature from getting much higher.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.scientificamerican.com/article/behind-the-hockey-stick/
One natural cause that explains the exponential rise in global temperatures between 1850 and 1998 is the greenhouse effect, which can partially be traced to human activity. The greenhouse effect is when solar radiation heats the Earth’s surface, and then the energy radiates back through the Earth’s atmosphere in the form of heat, but with a longer wavelength. During the wavelength water vapor and carbon dioxide absorb the thermal radiation, which increases the temperature of the atmosphere as well as the land and ocean surfaces. According to the World Nuclear Association, “Over one-third of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions come from the burning of fossil fuel to generate electricity”. Therefore, although some of this can be attributed to natural causes, humans exacerbate this process.
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The rise in temperature today is due to several causes, both natural and human. One natural cause that has impacted the earth, thus affecting temperature is the Greenhouse Effect and rise in Co2 levels into the atmosphere. When sunlight breaks the atmosphere and reaches the surface of the earth, it will either be reflected or absorbed. When absorbed, it will eventually be released back out into the atmosphere in the form of gas, such as Co2 and H20. When these gases are in the atmosphere they create a barrier surrounded the earth, trapping heat that is within our planet. Over many years, these gases have added up, creating a large barrier that keeps getting thicker, which contributes to the rapid rise of temperature.
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Before 1850, the Earth was experiencing a "Little Ice Age" in which the sun was emitting less radiation than usual. 1850 marked the end of this "ice age." Additionally, according to the Hockey Stick Graph, global temperatures began increasing. After 1850, there was an active period of sunspots and increased solar radiation. Sunspots contain heat and spill into surrounding areas, causing said areas to be brighter and radiate more heat. This increase in the sun's radiation could logically have caused an increase of the Earth's temperature.
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Natural occurrences such as volcanic eruptions and plate movement release carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and other gases into the environment. This can definitely account for some of the increase in heat that the earth has encountered. Particles from volcanoes and other natural disasters get caught up in the environment, causing gases and light to bouce off either to go back down towards earth or get deflected and hang up in the air. This causes to air to heat up and the general temperature of the earth increases. Waterways around the world absorb the heat and this then in turn heats the soil and the earth's crust.
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One of the many natural causes of international climate change between 1850 and 1998 is solar activity. It has had a much larger impact on Europe than anywhere else. There has been impact on the ocean-atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic Sea, which led to effects on regional climate. In order to establish the impact that the sun has on climate change, seafloor sediments are analyzed. These sediments are analyzed in order to establish the warmth of the surface ocean current which is done by the looking into the chemical composition of fossilised microorganisms, which directly impacts climate change. In simple terms, the sun significant amounts of sea-water warmth. This warmth in sea water correlates with climate change, meaning there is a relationship of one affecting the other.
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- Keyla Ynoa
There can be many viable natural occurrences that directly correlate with Global warming. As many people have stated there are things like forest fires and volcanic eruptions that force more CO2 into the air through ought their process. However Carbon is the main cause for global warming. A large amount of Carbon is stored in permafrost, frozen ground, and all of the things above melt the permafrost resulting in excess CO2 in the air. These layers of permafrost are located on the North and South poles where many years ago the layers of permafrost ran deeper and wider therefore storing more frozen carbon. Now that things like solar activity, forest fires, and volcanic activity are increasing temperature they are therefor causing the permafrost to melt which is also adding to the effects of global warming.
ReplyDeletehttps://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/students/impacts/signs/permafrost.html
One possible natural cause of climate change is increased solar radiation. The sun has natural cycles of increased and decreased solar radiation. Around 110 years ago, the sun began releasing increased amounts of solar radiation. Solar radiation increases the amount of visible light, as well as infrared and UV light. These light sources get trapped in the atmosphere as well as oceans and land, leading to increased temperatures on earth. It is believed that solar radiation has directly caused a 0.6 increase in global temperature from "Pre-Industrial" times. Increased solar radiation combined with increased CO2 from humans is a possible explanation for the Hockey Stick Graph.
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Many natural causes can cause a rise in global temperature. Solar activity can cause a rise in global temperature such as solar flares and sunspots. According to the article, solar activities are measured in cycles where changes in the activity of the sun change the magnetic activity in and around the sun. Thus, when the sun dims and and its magnetic field drops, cosmic rays are able to penetrate deeper into our atmosphere. Forest fires are also a cause of an increase in temperature as when plants burn they release carbon dioxide in the air. Lastly, melting permafrost can cause an increase in temperature as the North and South Pole lose a large amount of ice resulting in large amounts of carbon. Although all these have a factor in the rise of global temperatures, human caused rise in temperature has the largest effect in the current rise in temperature.
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ReplyDeleteOne local natural cause that would explain the exponential rise in global temperatures between 1850 and 1998 as seen in the Hockey Stick Graph would be that the Sun’s energy fluctuates which happens in cycles of around 110 years. The more energy that the Sun produces the more thermal radiation our solar system receives. This solar radiation hits our planet and gets trapped in our atmosphere. Furthermore, the planet heating has a snowball effect of the ice melting which causes a smaller reflection surface for the sun rays. This in turn, causes the Earth to absorb even more heat. Combine that with the industrial revolution that released a lot more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere and trapped even more sun rays, no wonder there is such a drastic increase in temperature over the last 150 years.
ReplyDeletehttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/SORCE/sorce_04.php
One possible natural cause for the hockey stick graph is solar radiation. Larger amounts of solar radiation, coupled with a larger amount of pollutants in the air could lead to an exponential increase in heat on the planet. The article suggests that due to global dimming,scattered light penetrates deeper into the vegetation canopy than direct sunlight, which means the plants can use the light less effectively for photosynthesis than when the air is clean.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090719195200.htm
In the article i read, one possible natural cause for the hockey stick graph is El Niño-Southern Oscillation. El Niño-Southern Oscillation is when the ocean and the atmosphere system oscillate, affecting weather all around the globe. It occurs every 3-10 years. The warm water in the pacific ocean flows towards south america because the southeast trade winds are weakened. The warm water messes with the patterns of our weather resulting in stormy warm weather in North America, and a lot more rain in South America.
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One natural cause that would explain the "hockey stick curve" is the fluctuating changes in the greenhouse effect. The earth is meant to retain a certain amount of heat within the atmosphere coming from the rays of the sun. However, the gases being spread through the greenhouse effect deteriorate the atmospheric barrier and cause the earths temperature to fluctuate against the regulated temperature scientists proclaim is safe for the environment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.epa.gov/climate-change-science/causes-climate-change
One logical natural cause that could explain the exponential rise in global temperature is temperatures between 1850 and 1998 as seen in the Hockey stick graph is due to the amount of heat from the sun that reaches the Earth. And so climate is influenced by the amount of sun’s energy that reaches the surface of the Earth where the intensity of the sunlight can either cause warming or cooling, but in this case, it all depends on the Earth’s surface and atmosphere in which the sun’s energy will be absorbed and retained. The darker the colors of the surface of the Earth, the more the heat of the sun will be retained, thus causing a rise in global temperature. However, it all depends on the shape of the Earth’s orbit and the tilt and position of the Earth’s axis which determines the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.epa.gov/climate-change-science/causes-climate-change#Sun
One logical natural cause that could explain the exponential rise in global temperature is temperatures between 1850 and 1998 as seen in the Hockey stick graph is due to the amount of heat from the sun that reaches the Earth. And so climate is influenced by the amount of sun’s energy that reaches the surface of the Earth where the intensity of the sunlight can either cause warming or cooling, but in this case, it all depends on the Earth’s surface and atmosphere in which the sun’s energy will be absorbed and retained. The darker the colors of the surface of the Earth, the more the heat of the sun will be retained, thus causing a rise in global temperature. However, it all depends on the shape of the Earth’s orbit and the tilt and position of the Earth’s axis which determines the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.epa.gov/climate-change-science/causes-climate-change#Sun